Colorado-Real-Estate-Journal_384812

M any analysts plot us near the trough of the real estate cycle with new deliveries expected to peak in the near term and occupancy accelerating by end of year, hence the popular industry trope, “Survive ‘til 25!” Although the difficulties of this phase of the cycle shouldn’t be understated, our perspective is that multifamily con- tinues to be a beacon of stability in the current landscape, attracting investor interest regardless of the wider market uncertainties. When taken into context of incoming sup- ply at a 40-year high, mild vacancy numbers and flat rent growth instills\ confidence that there are still opportunities on the horizon for strategic real estate investors. Q Navigating sup- ply/demand dynam- ics. Despite indus- try uncertainties, the fundamental story for leasing at the national level remains surprisingly positive. Demand is normalizing, yes, but it’s far from cooling and is particularly strong in the mountain and Sunbelt regions. Doomsday analysts peg these as the “oversupplied” mar- kets, but they account for 70% of the absorption nationwide (Parsons, 2024). With a typical population growth trajectory, these new deliv- eries would be absorbed in 12 to 18 months, but immigration will vastly accelerate that absorption. The lat- est demographic outlook from the Congressional Budget Office esti- mates that net immigration in the next two years will be more than the total net immigration of the previous decade: 3.3 million in 2024, 2.6 million in 2025 and 1.8 million in 2026, compared to 900,000 annu- ally from 2010 to 2019 (Congres- sional Budget Office, 2024). With expectations of supply peaking and receding next year, combined with an uptick in projected population growth, this temporary slowdown from record highs shouldn't paint a gloomy picture for the multifamily asset class. Q Occupancy and vacancy. Much like the demand metric, occupancy and vacancy rates have shifted from the post-COVID-19 boom but are Please see Brinkman, Page 22 INSIDE Finding creative solutions to Fed’s rate cut signaling Rate cuts ahead? Spotlight on homelessness gives rise to political will Affordable housing PAGES 26-30 Denver’s small-unit multifamily market offers rewards Small but mighty PAGE 6 Februrary 2024 PAGE 4 Kevin Brinkman Founder and CEO, Brinkman Real Estate MF: A beacon of stability in the current landscape The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59697 Source: Congressional Budget Office. (Jan. 18, 2024)