Colorado-Real-Estate-Journal_355018

O ver the past year, commer- cial real estate transactions have dropped considerably, both locally and nationally. Apartment transactions nationally are down 69% year to date, and Colorado has mirrored this sales volume decline. Despite great macroeconomic volatilities and dwindling sales volume, Colo- rado is poised for a positive coun- terreaction, as evidenced when one focuses on key renter demographics and overall market dynamics sup- porting growth in the multihousing rental market. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on Colorado’s total population and overall growth rate. From 2010 to 2020, Colorado had an average yearly in-migration of 70,000 residents, but since 2021, this figure has dropped to 30,000 residents. Decreased birth and increased death rates have also played a role in Colorado’s stagnant population growth. 2021 had the lowest number of births in a cal- endar year since 1999, with 62,000 births, a 15% decrease compared to the state’s peak birth rate in 2007. Even though the death and birth rates in Colorado’s history have played a role in the state’s population growth, it is important to distinguish the minuscule effect these rates have on key renter demo- graphics. Despite these recent nega- tive headwinds, Elizabeth Garner, a state demographer with the Depart- ment of Local Affairs, stated that she believes the previous two years will be the lowest change to our population growth over the next decade. Garner’s office estimates 55,000-plus new residents in 2023, with subsequent increases year over year leading up to 2030. Criti- cally, when you layer in this growth with focus on the size of the tradi- tional renter age segment, you see brighter days ahead for Colorado as evidenced by the chart below: Nearly 85% of the total renter Please see Market, Page 26 INSIDE Motivation is the driving force behind every transaction in real estate MF motivation Creating communities that include master planning for affordability Affordable housing PAGE 30 Incorporating fitness trends can help establish a community's identity Look, then leap PAGE 20 August 2023 PAGE 5 Jack Sanders Director, JLL Local apartment market continues to draw renters Source: JLL Research, National Mortgage Database; Moody’s