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Page 2 OSCEOLA NEWS-GAZETTE 2024 Hurricane Section B Thursday, July 18, 2024 By Jim Turner News Service of Florida In the wake of Hurricane Beryl’s pounding of Texas a er blazing a path through the southern Caribbean, experts at Colorado State University have increased their storm forecast for what was already expected to be an above-average hurricane season. The university’s Department of Atmospheric Science added two named storms and a major hurricane to its outlook for the 2024 season, which will run through November, saying it needed to “slightly” increase projections. Near-record warm Atlantic and Caribbean waters are still present, along with a lack of strong vertical wind shear that helps temper hurricane development. “Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” the department said in announcing the update. e department also described Hurricane Beryl as “a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.” While Beryl made landfall in Texas as a Category 1 storm, it earlier set a record by becoming the earliest Category 5 storm in a calendar year as it tore through the Caribbean and parts of Mexico. Including Beryl and short- lived tropical storms Alberto and Chris, the department’s forecast now calls for 25 named storms this season, up from 23 when the first forecast was released in April. (Keep in mind, the National Hurricane Center’s name list only has 21 names before getting into an auxiliary list of names.) Chris made landfall near Veracruz, Mexico, shortly a er reaching tropical-storm strength on June 30. Alberto affected parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mexico in mid- June. e university department’s new forecast includes 12 hurricanes, up from the initial estimate of 11. Also, six hurricanes, instead of the initially forecast five, are projected to reach Category 3 or higher status to qualify as major systems. Expressing “above-normal confidence” in its projections, the department said it continues to anticipate a “well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.” But with about one-sixth of the 2024 storm season finished, the projection of a U.S. major hurricane landfall has dipped slightly, from 62 percent when the outlook was first released in April to 57 percent, according to the department. Most years, the average is 43 percent—so it’s still above normal. e landfall projection for the U.S. coastline that includes parts of Florida south and east of Cedar Key is now at 31 percent, down from the earlier 34 percent. Since 1880, the yearly average is 21 percent. Colorado State isn’t alone in predicting a highly active hurricane season. e National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast up to 25 named storms, with as many as 13 reaching hurricane strength and four to seven becoming Category 3-5. Experts at the University of Pennsylvania’s School of Arts & Sciences, forecast an eye- opening 33 named storms. e 2023 season was the fourth most-active on record with 20 named storms, including seven that reached hurricane strength and three major storms. By comparison, seasons from 1991 to 2020 averaged 14.4 storms a year, with an average of 7.2 reaching hurricane strength. Experts’ hurricane season forecast ratchets up By Ken Jackson Editor e tropical weather researchers at Colorado State University release annual probabilities of a landfalling tropical storm, hurricane or major hurricane, broken down to individual states, and counties. e CSU team updated the stats for coastal counties in 2024. Reasoning that they predict a high number of named storms this year–upwards of two dozen–their percentages are higher for this year than the “climatological average”. Stat geeks will have a field day with this. For the state of Florida as a whole, the probability in 2024 of experiencing a landfalling tropical storm is 96% (almost a certainty!), a hurricane at 75% and major hurricane at 44%. e “average” for those figures is 86%, 56% and 29%. Let’s look at the probabilities for a coastal county that would have the biggest impact in Osceola County. A storm coming from the Atlantic would most likely affect Brevard or Indian River counties before coming inland to Osceola. e Brevard probabilities are 61% (TS), 27% (H) and 9% (MH), up from the statistical average of 42%, 17% and 6%. In Indian River, this year’s percentages are 55%,27% and10%, up from 37%, 17% and 6%. e Bahamas, just to the east of Florida, seems to be a sitting duck. Its 2024 probabilities are 94%,72% and 46%, up from 81%, 53% and 30%. On the west side of the state, storms affecting our area would most likely come from Charlotte–the “Charley/Ian scenario”–which has chances of 56%/27%/17%, up from 38%/17%/10%. Sarasota County, to the north, has figures of 53%/27%/14%, up from 36%/17%/8% For reference, the percentages for Puerto Rico, the birthplace of many Osceola County residents or the home of their families, and 59%/37%/16%, up from 40%/24%/9%. Notice the chance of a major hurricane this year nearly doubles to 1 in 6–luckily, Hurricane Beryl spared the island from any heavy impacts (it was never under a watch or warning). e CSU team did not update its storm probabilities for inland counties like Osceola and Orange this year, but in past years they’ve listed the probability of those counties experiencing tropical storm force winds at 16% (or once every six years), hurricane winds at 4% (every 25 years) and major hurricane winds at 1% (the “once in a hundred year storm”). While those numbers may seem low, think of this: major Hurricane Beryl made a direct hit on St. Vincent and the Grenadines on July 1. It was given a 2% chance of being affected by a major hurricane this year (up from 1% climatologically), showing that any percentage higher than zero is worth preparing for. “What are the chances?” Storm experts give higher odds of landfalling ’24 storms The Roof Specialists Your trusted and reliable source for quality roof repair and replacement at affordable prices. Free Estimates Licensed & Insured All Work Guaranteed Free Roof Inspections Call today for an appointment! www.donschmidtroofing.com 407-892-9884 Serving Osceola County for over 35 Years! Best of Osceola winner every year since 2014 061324HS Metro Creative Hurricanes are powerful storms that can rip through areas and leave substantial damage and devastation in their wake. In their powerful passage, they often produce very strong winds that can cause power outages by knocking down electrical poles, transformers or even individual lines running to homes and businesses. Power outages can disrupt communications, water supplies and transportation, and many an individual has lost a refrigerator full of food when the power goes out for an extended period of time. Anyone living in an area that could be affected by a hurricane, like ours, should include measures to get through power outages in their preparation efforts. Ready.gov and FEMA recommend these strategies. Ensure you have batteries and alternative power sources on hand to tide you over until the power can be restored. Cell phones can be charged using USB ports in vehicles. Some devices may work with solar chargers or power sources designed for camping and outdoor use. A back-up portable or whole- house generator also may be a consideration for individuals in areas prone to hurricanes. Disconnect power strips and unplug appliances to avoid damage from electrical surges. Stock up on ice to use in refrigerators and freezers to help prevent food spoilage. Well-insulated coolers can be used to refrigerate foods and medicines. Food that has been exposed to temperatures of 40 degrees or higher for two hours or more may be spoiled and should be discarded. Keep alternative entertainment handy, such as print books, board games, puzzles, and non-electronic toys. Power outages can affect ATMs as well, so always keep some cash on hand and store it in a secure, dry spot. You’ve weathered the hurricane— now the power outage PHOTO/NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA Hurricane Idalia ripped through Taylor County and Florida’s Big Bend, Aug. 30, 2023. PHOTO/METRO CREATIVE GRAPHIC/ACCUWEATHER Accuweather shows area of Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico shoreline that has more-than- historical average of seeing a landfalling tropical system this year–south Florida, North Carolina’s outer banks, the Florida Panhandle and the central Texas coast. The latter’s already seen Hurricane Beryl this storm season.